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1.Study on Railway Locomotive Demand Prediction Model

作  者: XIAO Xiang 1, WANG Laixiang 2, XIE Hongwen 1, YE Yujie 4
出  处: Proceedings of International Symposium —Management, Innovation & Development (MID2014)
书  号: 978-0-9924140-8-5
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发表日期: 2014年10月
关 键 词: Railway locomotive, Demand analysis model, Transport organization, Linear regression model
摘  要: Locomotive is one type of transport carrier, however, its procurement still has some problems, leading to high locomotive idle rate and low utilization rate. In other words, we now do not have a scientific demand evaluation system for locomotive procurement. In this article, the author first analyzes how different locomotive types are related to passenger and freight transport volume, their running speed, and transport time, and then gets the demand prediction formulae for passenger trains, freight trains, locomotives, and China Railway High Speed (CRH) respectively. Then the author uses the data from 1978 to 2012 to build unary and binary linear regression models for locomotives and improves the model for evaluating the procurement size of locomotives, hoping this research achievement can be an important reference for China Railway Corporation, road bureaus and companies during their decision-making for locomotive procurement.